Islamic State Could Unintentionally Be Greece’s Commodity Price Boom

The Islamic State group (still strangely refered to as “ISIS” by many American media outlets despite its increasing presence outside of Iraq and Syria) continues to horrify the world with its barbarism, by for example launching terror attacks in 3 countries (Kuwait, Tunisia and France) in the same day, the Tunisian one being the bloodiest, with at least 39 people being murdered (and more being wounded) by the Islamic State terrorist.

But the fact that more people were killed in the terror attack in Tunisia than in the other attacks isn’t the only reason why it’s the most interesting. It is also interesting because until now, Tunisia has been pretty much the only country affected by the “Arab spring” that has seen its situation improve. In other countries, things have at best gone back to the original situation (like in Bahrain and Egypt), or at worst, as in Libya, Yemen and Syria, things have gotten far worse, with chaos and civil war that has paved the way for expansion of the Islamic State in these countries (particularly in Syria). Though Islamic State unlike in the aforementioned countries and Iraq, doesn’t hold any territory in Tunisia (at least not yet) this attack, as well as a previous one earlier this year, indicates that even Tunisia may lose from the indirect effects of “the Arab spring”.

Also, the intented effect of the Tunisian terror attack is of course mostly to scare away tourists from Tunisia, so as to weaken Tunisia’s economy and thereby better enable the Islamic State to later establish itself there and ultimately overthrow the Tunisian government. While they’re a long way from achieving that ultimate goal, the short-term tactical goal of weakening the Tunisian economy will no doubt succeed. Already, most travel agencies have cancelled flights of tourists to Tunisia, with some even evacuating existing tourists (even though the short-term danger is almost certainly over).

Which brings us to next interesting aspect. With tourists being increasingly afraid to visit Tunisia, they are instead likely to go to other tourist resorts, including for example Greece. Which means that Greece, now that it faces potential Argentina-style potential collapde, could benefit from an external factor that they had nothing to do with, just like Argentina did after 2002.

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